Independiente del Valle 4–0 Orense SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orense SC

G. Torres 72'

J. Murillo 61'

J. Lencinas 50' (OG)

C. Pellerano 4'

12/18/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 14Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle56%

×Draw24%

Orense SC20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.89

Independiente del Valle

1.70

Orense SC

0.89

Independiente del Valle creates 91% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.05

0.72

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.53

Orense SC

1.05

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.72

Orense SC

1.86

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.03on par

Orense SC-0.05on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

80%

Independiente del Valle or Orense SC

76%

Draw or Orense SC

44%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

31%

Orense SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

82%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

51%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

24%

Orense SC 1+ goals

59%

Orense SC 2+ goals

22%

Orense SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

74%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.86 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Orense SC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Orense SC attack 1.05 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

56%

level

24%

Orense SC scores more

20%

Independiente del Valle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Pellerano

27'

E. Cetre

41'

M. Alaniz

46'

B. Rodríguez← C. Arboleda

50'

J. LencinasOwn goal

57'

A. Landazuri

58'

B. Rodriguez

61'

J. Murillo↳ B. Caicedo

63'

G. Torres← B. Caicedo

67'

M. Caicedo

72'

G. Torres↳ J. Murillo

73'

J. Sánchez← A. Preciado

73'

E. Mera← M. Caicedo

73'

E. Montaño← L. Faravelli

80'

B. García← C. Ortiz

85'

J. Sanchez

Independiente

Orense

1

Caicedo

13

Caicedo

25

🥅

26

31

27

37

▼

21

16

38

6

30

5

15

A

▼

Caicedo

2

Segovia

4

Landázuri

16

⚽

Pellerano

18

⚽A

Murillo

8

▼

Faravelli

17

▼

Preciado

55

▼

Caicedo

20

▼

Ortiz

Manager: Miguel Ángel Ramírez

63'▲G. Torres←▼B. Caicedo

73'▲J. Sánchez←▼A. Preciado

73'▲E. Mera←▼M. Caicedo

73'▲E. Montaño←▼L. Faravelli

80'▲B. García←▼C. Ortiz

Independiente del Valle substitutes

7Torres11Sánchez10Mera24Montaño56García25Piedra3Alvarado21Rivero1Ramírez23Guerrero51Pacho54Leiton

Manager: P. Lara

46'▲B. Rodríguez←▼C. Arboleda

Orense SC substitutes

10Rodríguez15Blanco17Solís2Cevallos28García19Alman29Casquete32Preciado23Valverde9Correa60Napa