Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC — Copa Ecuador 2022
Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Independiente del Valle41%
Manta FC28%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente del Valle creates 30% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independiente del Valle ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches
Manta FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + Manta FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08
Manta FC attack 0.67 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Independiente del Valle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
- Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
- Manta FC score first in only 31% of matches
- Both teams score in only 31% of Manta FC’s matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle host Manta FC on Wednesday, 5 August 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the Copa Ecuador 2022/2023 season.
Independiente del Valle face Manta FC (Copa Ecuador)
Copa Ecuador returns with Independiente del Valle hosting Manta FC. Match starts August 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Independiente del Valle host Manta FC at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.