Independiente del Valle 1–1 Manta FC

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manta FC

J. Bauman 23'

R. Ordóñez 76'

10/19/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Independiente del Valle61%

×Draw23%

Manta FC16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.77

Independiente del Valle

1.77

Manta FC

0.77

Independiente del Valle creates 130% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 43 away

1.81

creates per match

0.74

0.79

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.81

Manta FC

0.74

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.79

Manta FC

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

84%

Independiente del Valle or Manta FC

77%

Draw or Manta FC

39%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

35%

Manta FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

83%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

53%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

26%

Manta FC 1+ goals

54%

Manta FC 2+ goals

18%

Manta FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

79%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.79 · 134 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.81 + Manta FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Manta FC attack 0.74 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

61%

level

23%

Manta FC scores more

16%

Independiente del Valle at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

16'

23'

27'

41'

43'

52'

D. Patiño← G. Bustamante

58'

Alexander Mendoza

62'

K. Triviño← G. Martínez

62'

R. Ordóñez← C. Cuero

69'

J. Escobar← J. Angulo

76'

R. Ordóñez↳ A. Mendoza

78'

80'

86'

90+3'

90+2'

R. Salazar← N. Prieto

Possession

Shots

Statistics

IndependienteManta

Overview

75%Possession25%

17Total Shots5

9Corners2

20Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots5

7On Target2

10Off Target3

Passing

75%Possession25%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 1–1 Manta FC

Independiente del Valle and Manta FC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 19, 2021.

Goals: J. Bauman (23'), R. Ordóñez (76').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (75%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.

Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 1–1 Manta FC