Independiente del Valle 2–3 LDU Portoviejo

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

LDU Portoviejo

J. Murillo 90+2' (pen)

E. Montaño 49'

A. Ushiña 90+9'

V. Angulo 90+5'

F. Fydriszewski 42'

11/15/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 7Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente del Valle61%

×Draw21%

LDU Portoviejo18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchLDU Portoviejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.96

Independiente del Valle

1.97

LDU Portoviejo

0.96

Independiente del Valle creates 105% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 15 away

1.81

creates per match

1.13

0.79

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.81

LDU Portoviejo

1.13

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.79

LDU Portoviejo

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

LDU Portoviejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

82%

Independiente del Valle or LDU Portoviejo

79%

Draw or LDU Portoviejo

39%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

36%

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

86%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

58%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

31%

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals

62%

LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals

25%

LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

77%

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.79 · 134 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.81 + LDU Portoviejo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.97

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.13 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

61%

level

21%

LDU Portoviejo scores more

18%

Independiente del Valle at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

R. Quijije

35'

A. Landazuri

42'

F. Fydriszewski↳ K. Arroyo

46'

R. Schunke

49'

E. Montaño↳ J. Murillo

56'

B. García← B. Rivero

56'

C. Ortiz← D. Leiton

59'

J. Almagro← J. Quijije

66'

D. Valverde

69'

V. Angulo← L. Gómez

69'

J. Ferrari← K. Arroyo

74'

E. Mera← C. Pellerano

79'

H. Vélez← M. García

79'

J. Ayoví← F. Fydriszewski

81'

F. Guerrero← J. Sánchez

90+1'

A. Monteverde

90+8'

C. Pellerano

90+9'

A. Ushina

90+12'

B. Garcia

90+2'

J. MurilloPenalty

90+5'

V. Angulo↳ J. Almagro

90+9'

A. Ushiña↳ H. Vélez

Independiente

LDU

12

Dreer

5

Monteverd

3

Luna

80

A

▼

Arroyo

77

⚽

Ushiña

16

▼

García

18

Ushiña

30

Valverde

52

▼

Quijije

7

▼

Gómez

11

⚽

▼

30

5

2

4

16

▼

Pellerano

18

⚽A

Murillo

8

Faravelli

11

▼

Sánchez

21

▼

Rivero

54

▼

Leiton

24

⚽

Montaño

Manager: Miguel Ángel Ramírez

56'▲B. García←▼B. Rivero

56'▲C. Ortiz←▼D. Leiton

74'▲E. Mera←▼C. Pellerano

81'▲F. Guerrero←▼J. Sánchez

Independiente del Valle substitutes

56García20Ortiz10Mera23Guerrero25Piedra3Alvarado1Ramírez53Chávez51Pacho

Manager: M. Zuleta

59'▲J. Almagro←▼J. Quijije

69'▲V. Angulo←▼L. Gómez

69'▲J. Ferrari←▼K. Arroyo

79'▲H. Vélez←▼M. García

79'▲J. Ayoví←▼F. Fydriszewski

LDU Portoviejo substitutes

99Almagro9Angulo26Ferrari15Vélez17Ayoví6González29Mendoza50Rivera40Méndez