Independiente del Valle 2–0 Gualaceo SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gualaceo SC

L. Faravelli 48', 24'

8/13/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Independiente del Valle64%

×Draw22%

Gualaceo SC14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.70

Independiente del Valle

1.81

Gualaceo SC

0.70

Independiente del Valle creates 159% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 30 away

1.81

creates per match

0.60

0.79

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.81

Gualaceo SC

0.60

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.79

Gualaceo SC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

86%

Independiente del Valle or Gualaceo SC

78%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

36%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

38%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

84%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

54%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

27%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

50%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

16%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

82%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.79 · 134 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.81 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

64%

level

22%

Gualaceo SC scores more

14%

Independiente del Valle at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Wellington Ramírez

24'

L. Faravelli

48'

L. Faravelli↳ L. Segovia

63'

Y. Medina← J. Chávez

63'

A. Mina← G. Alles

63'

F. Millacet← H. Patta

68'

Jhon Ontaneda

69'

J. Sornoza← D. Cabezas

69'

M. Angulo← C. Pellerano

76'

P. Gómez← J. Preciado

76'

I. Cabrera← D. Ávila

80'

F. Gaibor← L. Faravelli

81'

J. Bauman← Jaimen Ayoví

85'

J. Falconí← J. Góngora

Shots

Statistics

IndependienteGualaceo

Overview

10Total Shots3

2Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots3

3On Target1

7Off Target2

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0