Independiente del Valle vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Independiente del Valle57%
Emelec18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente del Valle creates 108% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independiente del Valle ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches
Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58
Emelec attack 0.80 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad CatolicaEmelec
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Independiente del Valle host Emelec on Saturday, 30 September 2023 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Emelec
Independiente del Valle beat Emelec 2-1 in Liga Pro on September 30, 2023.
Goals: A. Chalá (18'), B. Caicedo (24'), L. Faravelli (70').
Independiente del Valle controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.