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Independiente del Valle vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Preview
00:15
Emelec
Emelec
7/20/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Big match
55%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
55%26%19%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Independiente del Valle55%
×Draw26%
Emelec19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.53
Emelec
0.78

Independiente del Valle creates 96% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.73
Emelec
0.80

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.76
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
81%
Independiente del Valle or Emelec
74%
Draw or Emelec
45%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
29%
Emelec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
78%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
45%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
20%
Emelec 1+ goals
54%
Emelec 2+ goals
18%
Emelec 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
74%
Emelec (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.73 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Emelec attack 0.80 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
55%
level
26%
Emelec scores more
19%

Independiente del Valle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Style contrast — Independiente del Valle play Possession-dominant, Emelec Defensively solid
  • Independiente del Valle sit 1, Emelec 13 in the table
  • Emelec outscore their xG (1.1 vs 0.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente del Valle
Possession-dominant
Emelec
Defensively solid
58%Possession49%
86%Pass accuracy77%
15.3Shots9.7
2.35xGBiggest gap0.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente del ValleEmelec

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Independiente del Valle
1
Draws
2
Emelec
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
0–21–01–22–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valle
WWWWW
Emelec
DDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente del Valle face Emelec (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Independiente del Valle hosting Emelec. Match starts July 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente del Valle host Emelec at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.