Independiente del Valle 0–1 Emelec: Result & Stats

Independiente del Valle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

S. Rodríguez 61' (pen)

2/28/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Independiente del Valle57%

×Draw25%

Emelec18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.76

Independiente del Valle

1.58

Emelec

0.76

Independiente del Valle creates 108% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

0.80

0.72

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.53

Emelec

0.80

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.72

Emelec

1.63

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.03on par

Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

82%

Independiente del Valle or Emelec

75%

Draw or Emelec

43%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

30%

Emelec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

47%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

21%

Emelec 1+ goals

53%

Emelec 2+ goals

18%

Emelec 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

76%

Emelec (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Emelec attack 0.80 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

57%

level

25%

Emelec scores more

18%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Joao Rojas

53'

Richard Schunke

60'

Cristian Pellerano

61'

J. Ayoví← N. Previtali

61'

S. RodríguezPenalty

70'

Eddie Guevara

73'

D. Cabezas← W. Vargas

77'

J. Cevallos← J. Chalá

82'

Á. Gracia← A. Zapata

86'

Pedro Ortiz

86'

F. Gaibor← C. Pellerano

90+8'

90+4'

90+11'

90+10'

90+4'

90+3'

B. Palacios← J. Rojas

Possession

Shots

Statistics

IndependienteEmelec

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots2

5Corners2

4Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots2

3On Target2

4Off Target0

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls11

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1