Independiente del Valle vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 91+ matches
Independiente del Valle54%
El Nacional21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente del Valle creates 77% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 91 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independiente del Valle ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches
El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65
El Nacional attack 1.08 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Independiente del Valle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
Aucas
Emelec
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Independiente del Valle host El Nacional on Sunday, 3 November 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 2–0 El Nacional
Independiente del Valle beat El Nacional 2-0 in Liga Pro on November 3, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.