Independiente del Valle vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 93+ matches
Independiente del Valle55%
El Nacional21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente del Valle creates 82% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independiente del Valle ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.79 · 134 matches
El Nacional away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independiente del Valle attack 1.81 + El Nacional defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67
El Nacional attack 1.05 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Independiente del Valle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Independiente del Valle host El Nacional on Saturday, 17 June 2023 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 3–4 El Nacional
El Nacional beat Independiente del Valle 4-3 in Liga Pro on June 17, 2023.
Goals: M. Hoyos (4'), R. Carrillo (27'), N. Micolta (40'), M. Solís (48'), L. Díaz (61'), J. Sornoza (90+4' pen), 1 A. Quiñonez (90+11' pen).
Independiente del Valle controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 20.
The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.