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Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
J. Sornoza 89' (pen), 52'
A. Plata 41'
S. Lucumí 15'
4/14/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente del Valle64%
×Draw21%
Deportes Tolima15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.97
Deportes Tolima
0.83

Independiente del Valle creates 137% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
2.28
Deportes Tolima
0.87

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.80
Deportes Tolima
1.67

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
85%
Independiente del Valle or Deportes Tolima
79%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
36%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
39%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
86%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
58%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
31%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
56%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
20%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
81%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Deportes Tolima attack 0.87 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
64%
level
21%
Deportes Tolima scores more
15%

Independiente del Valle at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. SornozaIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · M
9.9

Match Events

15'
S. Lucumí
18'
G. Ramirez
28'
J. Moya
33'
J. Chavez
41'
A. Plata↳ G. Ramírez
45'
J. Moya
45'
J. Moya
45+2'
J. Marulanda
45+2'
E. Caicedo← D. Cataño
46'
J. Ayoví← J. Chávez
52'
J. Sornoza↳ J. Bauman
61'
B. Arce← P. Perlaza
62'
L. Miranda← A. Plata
63'
J. Hernandez
66'
D. Cabezas← N. Previtali
67'
L. Segovia
70'
A. Dominguez
80'
A. Ibargüen← S. Lucumí
80'
C. Trujillo← G. Ramírez
83'
A. Valencia← L. Segovia
83'
F. Gaibor← C. Pellerano
89'
J. SornozaPenalty

Possession

75%Independiente

Shots

31Independiente

Pass accuracy

60%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteDeportes
Overview
75%Possession25%
31Total Shots4
9Corners0
13Fouls10
Shots
31Total Shots4
9On Target2
14Off Target1
8Blocked1
17Inside Box1
14Outside Box3
Passing
75%Possession25%
619Total Passes209
540Accurate Passes120
87%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
0Offsides6

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–2 Deportes Tolima

Independiente del Valle and Deportes Tolima drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 14, 2022.

Goals: S. Lucumí (15'), A. Plata (41'), J. Sornoza (52', 89' pen).

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (75%) and registered 31 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.