Independiente del Valle 3–1 Colon Santa Fe

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

Emanuel Olivera 89'

Cristián Dájome 90'

Jhon Sánchez 42'

Emanuel Olivera 42' (OG)

Luis Fernando Leon 25'

11/9/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · FinalLa Nueva Olla Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente del Valle53%

×Draw24%

Colon Santa Fe23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.02

Independiente del Valle

1.67

Colon Santa Fe

1.02

Independiente del Valle creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.71

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.00

Colon Santa Fe

1.33

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.71

Colon Santa Fe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

77%

Independiente del Valle or Colon Santa Fe

76%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

47%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

28%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

81%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

50%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

23%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

64%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

27%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

69%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.00 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.33 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

53%

level

24%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

23%

Independiente del Valle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Cristian Pellerano

Colon Santa Fe · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

Luis Fernando Leon↳ Cristian Pellerano

42'

Jhon Sánchez

42'

Emanuel OliveraOwn goal

50'

Anthony Landazuri

55'

Luis Miguel RodríguezMissed penalty

66'

Jorge Ortega← Alex Vigo

70'

Gabriel Esparza← Gonzalo Escobar

75'

Alejandro Cabeza← Jhon Sánchez

76'

Cristián Dájome

77'

Tomás Chancalay← Cristian Bernardi

80'

Roberto Garcés← Efrén Mera

86'

Washington Corozo← Gabriel Torres

89'

Emanuel Olivera↳ Jorge Ortega

90'

Cristián Dájome↳ Alejandro Cabeza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteColon

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots7

8Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target3

3Off Target3

6Blocked1

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

293Total Passes425

191Accurate Passes329

65%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Colon Santa Fe

Independiente del Valle beat Colon Santa Fe 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on November 9, 2019.

Goals: Luis Fernando Leon (25'), Jhon Sánchez (42'), Emanuel Olivera (42' o.g., 89'), Cristián Dájome (90').

Colon Santa Fe controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at La Nueva Olla Monumental in Asuncion.

Independiente del Valle vs Colon Santa Fe — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Colon Santa Fe