Independiente del Valle 1–0 Barcelona SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona SC

8/30/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle53%

×Draw25%

Barcelona SC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.91

Independiente del Valle

1.58

Barcelona SC

0.91

Independiente del Valle creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

1.10

0.72

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.53

Barcelona SC

1.10

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.72

Barcelona SC

1.64

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.03on par

Barcelona SC-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

78%

Independiente del Valle or Barcelona SC

75%

Draw or Barcelona SC

47%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

28%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

47%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

21%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

60%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

23%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

71%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Barcelona SC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Barcelona SC attack 1.10 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

53%

level

25%

Barcelona SC scores more

22%

Independiente del Valle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff