Barcelona SC 0–3 Independiente del Valle

Barcelona SC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Independiente del Valle

10/5/2025

Liga Pro · Championship Group - 1Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Barcelona SC44%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Barcelona SC

1.52

Independiente del Valle

1.21

Barcelona SC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 134 away

1.87

creates per match

1.56

0.85

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.87

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.85

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

70%

Barcelona SC or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

56%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

22%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

78%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

45%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

20%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

70%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

34%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

59%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Barcelona SC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

44%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

30%

Barcelona SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff