Independiente del Valle 2–0 Barcelona SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcelona SC

G. Torres 60'

C. Ortiz 24'

10/22/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Independiente del Valle62%

×Draw22%

Barcelona SC16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.79

Independiente del Valle

1.82

Barcelona SC

0.79

Independiente del Valle creates 130% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

2.28

creates per match

0.77

0.80

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Barcelona SC

0.77

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Barcelona SC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

84%

Independiente del Valle or Barcelona SC

78%

Draw or Barcelona SC

38%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

36%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

84%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

54%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

27%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

55%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

19%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

80%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Barcelona SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.82

Barcelona SC attack 0.77 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

62%

level

22%

Barcelona SC scores more

16%

Independiente del Valle at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Ortiz

Independiente del Valle · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

Jonathan Alvez

24'

C. Ortiz↳ L. Faravelli

31'

Jefferson Orejuela

33'

Luis Segovia

43'

Jacob Murillo

46'

B. García← B. Caicedo

46'

J. Sánchez← J. Murillo

46'

W. Pacho← L. Segovia

46'

Adonis Preciado← A. Bolaños

60'

E. Montaño← G. Torres

60'

G. Torres↳ C. Ortiz

66'

B. Piñatares← S. Quintero

72'

B. Rivero← F. Guerrero

77'

J. Montaño← J. Orejuela

77'

N. Molina← M. Oyola

82'

F. Mina← L. Martínez

86'

Pedro Velasco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBarcelona

Overview

72%Possession28%

15Total Shots9

6Corners1

26Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target3

9Off Target4

1Blocked2

3Inside Box7

12Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

664Total Passes241

606Accurate Passes182

91%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

26Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Barcelona SC

Independiente del Valle beat Barcelona SC 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 22, 2020.

Goals: C. Ortiz (24'), G. Torres (60').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (72%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Barcelona SC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Barcelona SC