Independiente del Valle 2–0 Aucas: Result & Stats

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aucas

J. Sornoza 64' (pen)

Y. Medina 17'

6/2/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 13Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle49%

×Draw27%

Aucas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.95

Independiente del Valle

1.45

Aucas

0.95

Independiente del Valle creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

1.19

0.72

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.53

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.72

Aucas

1.37

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.03on par

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

75%

Independiente del Valle or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

51%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

24%

Aucas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

77%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

42%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

18%

Aucas 1+ goals

61%

Aucas 2+ goals

25%

Aucas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

66%

Aucas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Aucas attack 1.19 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

49%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

25%

Independiente del Valle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ramírez

Independiente del Valle · G

8.7

Match Events

7'

Luis Cano

17'

Y. Medina↳ R. Schunke

33'

36'

40'

45+3'

45+3'

45+3'

45+3'

45+7'

46'

P. Mercado← M. Fernández

54'

E. Cabezas← A. García

55'

Lorenzo Faravelli

59'

N. Previtali← L. Faravelli

59'

C. Pellerano← J. Alcívar

64'

J. SornozaPenalty

70'

A. Mina← F. Carabalí

70'

M. Mieles← K. Ortiz

70'

M. Carcelén← S. Quintero

71'

77'

79'

82'

85'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAucas

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots11

1Corners4

21Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target6

11Off Target4

2Blocked1

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

464Total Passes240

404Accurate Passes184

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls13

6Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3