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Aucas vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Liga ProLiga Pro·2026📍Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Aucas
Aucas
Preview
21:30
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM
Tournament
Liga Pro · Regular Season - 19
Referee
R. Cabrera
Venue
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Big match
54%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
23%23%54%

Independiente del Valle have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aucas23%
×Draw23%
Independiente del Valle54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.12
Independiente del Valle
1.85

Independiente del Valle creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.38
Independiente del Valle
2.57

allows per match

Aucas
1.13
Independiente del Valle
0.86

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
46%
Aucas or Independiente del Valle
77%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
77%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
9%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
67%
Aucas 2+ goals
31%
Aucas 3+ goals
10%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
84%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
55%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
30%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.38 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Independiente del Valle attack 2.57 + Aucas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aucas scores more
23%
level
23%
Independiente del Valle scores more
54%

Independiente del Valle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 85% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Independiente del Valle fall short of their xG (2.3 vs 3.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Aucas
Balanced
Independiente del Valle
Attack-heavy
56%Possession54%
79%Pass accuracy86%
8.7ShotsBiggest gap16.3
—xG3.01
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AucasIndependiente del Valle

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Aucas
2
Draws
3
Independiente del Valle
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 80%
2–21–21–20–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Aucas
WWWW
Valle
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aucas face Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Aucas hosting Independiente del Valle. Match starts July 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aucas host Independiente del Valle at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.