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Independiente del Valle vs 9 de Octubre — Copa Ecuador 2022

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valleadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
J. Ayovi 58'
R. Schunke 31'
M. Carabajal 2'
J. Montero 85' (pen)
11/9/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · FinalEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle44%
×Draw27%
9 de Octubre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.38
9 de Octubre
1.06

Independiente del Valle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.50
9 de Octubre
1.13

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
1.00
9 de Octubre
1.25

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
71%
Independiente del Valle or 9 de Octubre
73%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
56%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
21%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
75%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
40%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
16%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
65%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
29%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
60%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

9 de Octubre attack 1.13 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
44%
level
27%
9 de Octubre scores more
29%

Independiente del Valle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Carabajal
15'
Goal Disallowed
31'
R. Schunke
33'
52'
57'
J. Chavez
58'
G. Mina← J. Cortez Erazo
58'
J. Paredes← W. Caicedo
58'
J. Ayovi
67'
J. Chavez← B. Caicedo
67'
J. Ayovi← J. Bauman
69'
N. Folleco← K. Peralta
72'
M. Da Luz← J. Montero
72'
M. Mosquera← E. Cetre
77'
78'
M. Fernandez← J. Ortiz
78'
L. Faravelli← D. Cabezas
78'
M. Angulo← F. Gaibor
85'
J. MonteroPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs 9 de Octubre

Independiente del Valle beat 9 de Octubre 3-1 in Copa Ecuador on November 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Carabajal (2'), R. Schunke (31'), J. Ayovi (58'), J. Montero (85' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.