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Atlético do Namibe vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2012

Atlético do Namibe
Atlético do Namibe
FT
3 – 0
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
3/31/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 5Estádio Mundunduleno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético do Namibe64%
×Draw21%
Sporting de Cabinda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético do Namibe
1.97
Sporting de Cabinda
0.82

Atlético do Namibe creates 140% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atlético do Namibe
2.00
Sporting de Cabinda
0.52

allows per match

Atlético do Namibe
1.13
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético do Namibe ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético do Namibe or draw
85%
Atlético do Namibe or Sporting de Cabinda
79%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
36%

Winning margin

Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+
39%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals
86%
Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals
58%
Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals
31%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
56%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
20%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético do Namibe at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético do Namibe attack 2.00 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.52 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlético do Namibe scores more
64%
level
21%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
15%

Atlético do Namibe at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético do Namibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético do Namibe vs Sporting de Cabinda

Atlético do Namibe beat Sporting de Cabinda 3-0 in Girabola on March 31, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Mundunduleno.