Independiente de La Chorrera 2–0 Santa Gema FC

Independiente de La Chorrera

FT

2 – 0

Santa Gema FC

3/21/2019

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 6Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera62%

×Draw22%

Santa Gema FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente de La ChorreraExpected goals in this matchSanta Gema FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.78

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.83

Santa Gema FC

0.78

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 135% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

1.56

creates per match

0.67

0.88

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.56

Santa Gema FC

0.67

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

0.88

Santa Gema FC

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Santa Gema FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

Santa Gema FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw

85%

Independiente de La Chorrera or Santa Gema FC

78%

Draw or Santa Gema FC

38%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

37%

Santa Gema FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

84%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

54%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

28%

Santa Gema FC 1+ goals

54%

Santa Gema FC 2+ goals

18%

Santa Gema FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

80%

Santa Gema FC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

Santa Gema FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + Santa Gema FC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Santa Gema FC attack 0.67 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

62%

level

22%

Santa Gema FC scores more

15%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff