Independiente de La Chorrera 0–0 San Francisco FC

Independiente de La Chorrera

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Francisco FC

4/11/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera44%

×Draw28%

San Francisco FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente de La ChorreraExpected goals in this matchSan Francisco FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.31

San Francisco FC

0.98

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 34% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 134 away

1.56

creates per match

1.08

0.88

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.56

San Francisco FC

1.08

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

0.88

San Francisco FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

San Francisco FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

San Francisco FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw

72%

Independiente de La Chorrera or San Francisco FC

72%

Draw or San Francisco FC

56%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

20%

San Francisco FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

73%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

38%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

14%

San Francisco FC 1+ goals

62%

San Francisco FC 2+ goals

26%

San Francisco FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

61%

San Francisco FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

San Francisco FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + San Francisco FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Francisco FC attack 1.08 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

44%

level

28%

San Francisco FC scores more

28%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

30'

42'

51'

55'

58'

B. Walters← J. Rivera

63'

65'

72'

73'

76'

80'

J. Arboleda← A. Morales

85'

R. Aguila

89'

L. Fields← Y. Ramirez

90'

M. Yau← K. Bonilla

90+4'

W. Lashley←

90+4'

A. Popoff← D. Pinzon

Independiente

San

12

5

26

62

75

27

8

17

10

▼

Pinzon

11

▼

9

1

4

5

27

▼

Morales

37

Modelo

8

▼

Ramirez

10

Aguila

15

▼

Vasquez

19

▼

Petit

28

▼

Bonilla

25

Contreras

72'▲A. Caicedo←▼D. Petit

73'▲R. Rivas←▼Y. Vasquez

80'▲J. Arboleda←▼A. Morales

89'▲L. Fields←▼Y. Ramirez

90'▲M. Yau←▼K. Bonilla

Independiente de La Chorrera substitutes

18Ambuila13Arboleda26Berrocal7Caicedo6Fields17Rivas20Rivera23Yau52Cifuentes83Leon

Manager: Dely Valdes Jorge

58'▲B. Walters←▼J. Rivera

90+4'▲W. Lashley←▼—

90+4'▲A. Popoff←▼D. Pinzon

San Francisco FC substitutes

20Rodriguez38Lashley96Popoff16Rangel21Walters1Cruz2Rodriguez4Rivas15Triana6Rangel

Match Recap: Independiente de La Chorrera vs San Francisco FC

Independiente de La Chorrera and San Francisco FC drew 0-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 11, 2026.

Independiente de La Chorrera vs San Francisco FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Independiente de La Chorrera vs San Francisco FC