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Independiente de La Chorrera vs New England Revolution — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
New England Revolution
New England Revolution
2/22/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · 1st RoundEstadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera60%
×Draw21%
New England Revolution18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente de La Chorrera
2.00
New England Revolution
1.00

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera
2.00
New England Revolution
1.33

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera
0.67
New England Revolution
2.00

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par
New England Revolution+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

New England Revolution →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw
82%
Independiente de La Chorrera or New England Revolution
79%
Draw or New England Revolution
40%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+
36%
New England Revolution wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals
86%
Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals
59%
Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals
32%
New England Revolution 1+ goals
63%
New England Revolution 2+ goals
26%
New England Revolution 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)
77%
New England Revolution (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 2.00 + New England Revolution defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

New England Revolution attack 1.33 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more
60%
level
21%
New England Revolution scores more
18%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente de La Chorrera vs New England Revolution

New England Revolution beat Independiente de La Chorrera 1-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.