Independiente de La Chorrera 0–1 Costa del Este

Independiente de La Chorrera

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Costa del Este

3/16/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera47%

×Draw27%

Costa del Este26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente de La ChorreraExpected goals in this matchCosta del Este

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.95

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.37

Costa del Este

0.95

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 44% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 111 away

1.56

creates per match

1.02

0.88

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.56

Costa del Este

1.02

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

0.88

Costa del Este

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

Costa del Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw

74%

Independiente de La Chorrera or Costa del Este

73%

Draw or Costa del Este

53%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

22%

Costa del Este wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

75%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

40%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

16%

Costa del Este 1+ goals

61%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

25%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

64%

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

47%

level

27%

Costa del Este scores more

26%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff