Independiente De Chivilcoy 2–4 Sportivo Las Parejas

Independiente De Chivilcoy

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Sportivo Las Parejas

M. Olivera 34'

E. Bassi 27'

F. Godoy 80'

J. Acosta 70'

C. Leineker 25', 14'

5/11/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 8Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy49%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Las Parejas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente De ChivilcoyExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.77

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.30

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.77

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 114 away

1.32

creates per match

0.86

0.69

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.32

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.86

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.69

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw

78%

Independiente De Chivilcoy or Sportivo Las Parejas

71%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

51%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+

23%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals

73%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals

37%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

54%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

18%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)

69%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.69 · 88 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.32 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.86 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more

49%

level

29%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

22%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

25'

27'

34'

46'

L. Almada← B. Jiménez

60'

W. Romero← J. Ford

60'

E. Benítez← G. Melgarejo

60'

R. Trejo← L. Cáceres

70'

J. Acosta

72'

E. Cabrera← F. Tumbesi

76'

F. Godoy← C. Leineker

76'

L. Ricciotti← L. Príncipe

80'

F. Godoy

84'

T. Rodríguez← T. Sarmiento

84'

M. Ponce de León← J. Acosta

89'

Mariano Martínez← J. Iturrieta

Independiente

Sportivo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Olmedo

60'▲W. Romero←▼J. Ford

60'▲E. Benítez←▼G. Melgarejo

60'▲R. Trejo←▼L. Cáceres

72'▲E. Cabrera←▼F. Tumbesi

84'▲T. Rodríguez←▼T. Sarmiento

Independiente De Chivilcoy substitutes

RomeroBenítezTrejoCabreraRodríguez

Manager: S. Cejas

46'▲L. Almada←▼B. Jiménez

76'▲F. Godoy←▼C. Leineker

76'▲L. Ricciotti←▼L. Príncipe

84'▲M. Ponce de León←▼J. Acosta

89'▲Mariano Martínez←▼J. Iturrieta

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

AlmadaGodoyRicciottiLeónMartínez

Torneo Federal A: Independiente De Chivilcoy 2–4 Sportivo Las Parejas

Sportivo Las Parejas beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 4-2 in Torneo Federal A on May 11, 2024.

Goals: C. Leineker (14', 25'), E. Bassi (27'), M. Olivera (34'), J. Acosta (70'), F. Godoy (80').

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo in Chivilcoy, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Las Parejas — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Independiente De Chivilcoy 2–4 Sportivo Las Parejas