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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Juventud Unida Univ. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
7/24/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 21Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy46%
×Draw30%
Juventud Unida Univ.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.19
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.75

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 59% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 111 away

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.33
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.79

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.71
Juventud Unida Univ.
1.05

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par
Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw
77%
Independiente De Chivilcoy or Juventud Unida Univ.
70%
Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.
54%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
20%
Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
70%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
33%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
12%
Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
53%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
17%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
67%
Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.71 · 86 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.33 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
46%
level
30%
Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
23%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Independiente De Chivilcoy 0–0 Juventud Unida Univ.

Independiente De Chivilcoy and Juventud Unida Univ. drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo in Chivilcoy, Provincia de Buenos Aires.