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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
9/4/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 21Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy50%
×Draw29%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.32
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.76

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 74% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.33
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.82

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.71
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.31

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw
78%
Independiente De Chivilcoy or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
71%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
50%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
24%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
73%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
38%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
15%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
53%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
18%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
70%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.71 · 86 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.33 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
50%
level
29%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
22%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Independiente De Chivilcoy 1–2 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo in Chivilcoy, Provincia de Buenos Aires.