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Independente SP vs Santacruzense — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SP
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santacruzense
Santacruzense
L. Cambuhy 66' (pen)
6/7/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independente SP64%
×Draw20%
Santacruzense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
2.19
Santacruzense
0.99

Independente SP creates 121% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Santacruzense
1.10

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Santacruzense
1.30

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Santacruzense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Santacruzense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
84%
Independente SP or Santacruzense
80%
Draw or Santacruzense
36%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
41%
Santacruzense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
89%
Independente SP 2+ goals
64%
Independente SP 3+ goals
37%
Santacruzense 1+ goals
63%
Santacruzense 2+ goals
26%
Santacruzense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
80%
Santacruzense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Santacruzense away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Santacruzense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.19

Santacruzense attack 1.10 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Independente SP scores more
64%
level
20%
Santacruzense scores more
16%

Independente SP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
L. CambuhyPenalty
68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Independente SP 0–1 Santacruzense

Santacruzense beat Independente SP 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Cambuhy (66' pen).