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Independente SP vs Matonense — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Matonense
Matonense
I. Niltton 90'
G. Hiago 32' (pen)
4/19/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Independente SP40%
×Draw21%
Matonense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
2.04
Matonense
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Matonense
3.14

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Matonense
1.00

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Matonense+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Matonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
61%
Independente SP or Matonense
79%
Draw or Matonense
60%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
22%
Matonense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
87%
Independente SP 2+ goals
60%
Independente SP 3+ goals
33%
Matonense 1+ goals
86%
Matonense 2+ goals
59%
Matonense 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
51%
Matonense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Matonense away — creates 3.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Matonense attack 3.14 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independente SP scores more
40%
level
21%
Matonense scores more
39%

Independente SP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
G. HiagoPenalty
90'
I. Niltton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente SP vs Matonense

Independente SP beat Matonense 2-0 in Paulista Série B on April 19, 2026.

Goals: G. Hiago (32' pen), I. Niltton (90').