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Independente SP vs Grêmio Catanduvense — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SP
FT
17 – 0
HT: 11 – 0
Grêmio Catanduvense
Grêmio Catanduvense
I. Niltton 89'
P. Vinicius de Lima 84'
C. Alexandre 75', 74'
V. Peres Silva 59'
Hiago 48', 43' (pen), 36', 18', 14'
D. Mori 40'
M. da Silva 39', 17'
L. Alves 30'
K. Jesus Silva 22'
Jean 20'
F. Ferreira 3'
6/20/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP95%
×Draw3%
Grêmio Catanduvense1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
5.13
Grêmio Catanduvense
0.64

Independente SP creates 702% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Grêmio Catanduvense
0.40

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Grêmio Catanduvense
7.20

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 90Under: 1090%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Grêmio Catanduvense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
99%
Independente SP or Grêmio Catanduvense
97%
Draw or Grêmio Catanduvense
5%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
87%
Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
99%
Independente SP 2+ goals
95%
Independente SP 3+ goals
85%
Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals
47%
Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals
14%
Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
99%
Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Grêmio Catanduvense away — creates 0.40, concedes 7.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 7.20 → ÷2 → 5.13

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Independente SP scores more
95%
level
3%
Grêmio Catanduvense scores more
1%

Independente SP at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
F. Ferreira
14'
Hiago
17'
M. da Silva
18'
Hiago
20'
Jean
22'
K. Jesus Silva
30'
L. Alves
36'
Hiago
39'
M. da Silva
40'
D. Mori
43'
HiagoPenalty
48'
Hiago
59'
V. Peres Silva
74'
C. Alexandre
75'
C. Alexandre
84'
P. Vinicius de Lima
89'
I. Niltton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente SP vs Grêmio Catanduvense

Independente SP beat Grêmio Catanduvense 17-0 in Paulista Série B on June 20, 2026.

Goals: F. Ferreira (3'), Hiago (14', 18', 36', 43' pen, 48'), M. da Silva (17', 39'), Jean (20'), K. Jesus Silva (22'), L. Alves (30'), D. Mori (40'), V. Peres Silva (59'), C. Alexandre (74', 75'), P. Vinicius de Lima (84'), I. Niltton (89').