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Independente SP U20 vs XV de Piracicaba U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Independente SP U20
Independente SP U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
G. Venite 85'
Marcos Vinicios 45'
A. Santos 7'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP U2021%
×Draw22%
XV de Piracicaba U2057%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP U20
1.08
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.93

XV de Piracicaba U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Independente SP U20
0.80
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25

allows per match

Independente SP U20
2.60
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.35

finishing

Independente SP U20+0.00on par
XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independente SP U20 or draw
43%
Independente SP U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20
78%
Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20
79%

Winning margin

Independente SP U20 wins by 2+
8%
XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Independente SP U20 1+ goals
66%
Independente SP U20 2+ goals
29%
Independente SP U20 3+ goals
10%
XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
85%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
57%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)
27%
XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP U20 attack 0.80 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independente SP U20 scores more
21%
level
22%
XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
57%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Santos
45'
Marcos Vinicios
85'
G. Venite

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Independente SP U20 0–3 XV de Piracicaba U20

XV de Piracicaba U20 beat Independente SP U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Santos (7'), Marcos Vinicios (45'), G. Venite (85').

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada in Limeira, São Paulo.