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Independente SP U20 vs Inter Limeira U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Independente SP U20
Independente SP U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
Kaua 56', 51'
Leonardo 73'
Martini 61'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP U2022%
×Draw22%
Inter Limeira U2055%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP U20
1.15
Inter Limeira U20
1.93

Inter Limeira U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independente SP U20
0.80
Inter Limeira U20
1.25

allows per match

Independente SP U20
2.60
Inter Limeira U20
1.50

finishing

Independente SP U20+0.00on par
Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independente SP U20 or draw
45%
Independente SP U20 or Inter Limeira U20
78%
Draw or Inter Limeira U20
78%

Winning margin

Independente SP U20 wins by 2+
9%
Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Independente SP U20 1+ goals
68%
Independente SP U20 2+ goals
32%
Independente SP U20 3+ goals
11%
Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
85%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
57%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP U20 attack 0.80 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independente SP U20 scores more
22%
level
22%
Inter Limeira U20 scores more
55%

Inter Limeira U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Inter Limeira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
Kaua
56'
Kaua
61'
Martini
73'
Leonardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente SP U20 vs Inter Limeira U20

Independente SP U20 and Inter Limeira U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Kaua (51', 56'), Martini (61'), Leonardo (73').

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada in Limeira, São Paulo.