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Independente PA vs Ji-Paraná — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ji-Paraná
Ji-Paraná
9/30/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Independente PA54%
×Draw23%
Ji-Paraná23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
1.85
Ji-Paraná
1.13

Independente PA creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Ji-Paraná
1.25

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Ji-Paraná
1.88

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Ji-Paraná+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Ji-Paraná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
77%
Independente PA or Ji-Paraná
77%
Draw or Ji-Paraná
46%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
31%
Ji-Paraná wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
84%
Independente PA 2+ goals
55%
Independente PA 3+ goals
28%
Ji-Paraná 1+ goals
68%
Ji-Paraná 2+ goals
31%
Ji-Paraná 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
70%
Ji-Paraná (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Ji-Paraná away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Ji-Paraná defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ji-Paraná attack 1.25 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independente PA scores more
54%
level
23%
Ji-Paraná scores more
23%

Independente PA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente PA vs Ji-Paraná

Ji-Paraná beat Independente PA 2-1 in Serie D on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias in Tucuruí, Pará.