Independente PA 1–0 Fast Clube-Am: Result & Stats

Independente PA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fast Clube-Am

11/7/2020

Serie D · Round 11Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independente PA49%

×Draw25%

Fast Clube-Am27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente PAExpected goals in this matchFast Clube-Am

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.15

Independente PA

1.64

Fast Clube-Am

1.15

Independente PA creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

1.82

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Independente PA

1.82

Fast Clube-Am

1.30

allows per match

Independente PA

1.00

Fast Clube-Am

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par

Fast Clube-Am+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Fast Clube-Am →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw

73%

Independente PA or Fast Clube-Am

75%

Draw or Fast Clube-Am

51%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+

26%

Fast Clube-Am wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals

81%

Independente PA 2+ goals

49%

Independente PA 3+ goals

23%

Fast Clube-Am 1+ goals

68%

Fast Clube-Am 2+ goals

32%

Fast Clube-Am 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)

65%

Fast Clube-Am (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Fast Clube-Am away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Fast Clube-Am defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fast Clube-Am attack 1.30 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independente PA scores more

49%

level

25%

Fast Clube-Am scores more

27%

Independente PA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff