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Independente PA vs Atlético Acreano — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Acreano
Atlético Acreano
10/14/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independente PA71%
×Draw18%
Atlético Acreano11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
2.22
Atlético Acreano
0.73

Independente PA creates 204% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Atlético Acreano
0.46

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Atlético Acreano
2.62

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Atlético Acreano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
89%
Independente PA or Atlético Acreano
82%
Draw or Atlético Acreano
29%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
47%
Atlético Acreano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
89%
Independente PA 2+ goals
65%
Independente PA 3+ goals
38%
Atlético Acreano 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Acreano 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Acreano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
87%
Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.22

Atlético Acreano attack 0.46 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Independente PA scores more
71%
level
18%
Atlético Acreano scores more
11%

Independente PA at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Independente PA 4–1 Atlético Acreano

Independente PA beat Atlético Acreano 4-1 in Serie D on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias in Tucuruí, Pará.