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Independente FSJ U20 vs Londrina U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Independente FSJ U20
Independente FSJ U20
FT
2 – 2
Londrina U20
Londrina U20
4/27/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independente FSJ U2036%
×Draw24%
Londrina U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente FSJ U20
1.52
Londrina U20
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Independente FSJ U20
1.17
Londrina U20
1.87

allows per match

Independente FSJ U20
1.33
Londrina U20
1.87

finishing

Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par
Londrina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente FSJ U20 ↓

Londrina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independente FSJ U20 or draw
60%
Independente FSJ U20 or Londrina U20
76%
Draw or Londrina U20
64%

Winning margin

Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+
17%
Londrina U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals
78%
Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals
45%
Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals
20%
Londrina U20 1+ goals
80%
Londrina U20 2+ goals
47%
Londrina U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Londrina U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente FSJ U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Londrina U20 away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente FSJ U20 attack 1.17 + Londrina U20 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Londrina U20 attack 1.87 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independente FSJ U20 scores more
36%
level
24%
Londrina U20 scores more
40%

Londrina U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Londrina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Independente FSJ U20 2–2 Londrina U20

Independente FSJ U20 and Londrina U20 drew 2-2 in Paranaense U20 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná.