Independente FSJ U20 0–2 Azuriz U20: Result & Stats

Independente FSJ U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Azuriz U20

4/13/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 7Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independente FSJ U2033%

×Draw26%

Azuriz U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente FSJ U20Expected goals in this matchAzuriz U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.46

Independente FSJ U20

1.26

Azuriz U20

1.46

Azuriz U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.59

1.33

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Independente FSJ U20

1.17

Azuriz U20

1.59

allows per match

Independente FSJ U20

1.33

Azuriz U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par

Azuriz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente FSJ U20 ↓

Azuriz U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independente FSJ U20 or draw

58%

Independente FSJ U20 or Azuriz U20

74%

Draw or Azuriz U20

67%

Winning margin

Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+

14%

Azuriz U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals

72%

Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals

36%

Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals

13%

Azuriz U20 1+ goals

77%

Azuriz U20 2+ goals

43%

Azuriz U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Azuriz U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente FSJ U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Azuriz U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente FSJ U20 attack 1.17 + Azuriz U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Azuriz U20 attack 1.59 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independente FSJ U20 scores more

33%

level

26%

Azuriz U20 scores more

42%

Azuriz U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Azuriz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff