Independente FSJ U20 vs Athletico PR U20 — Paranaense U20 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Independente FSJ U2024%
Athletico PR U2052%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletico PR U20 creates 59% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independente FSJ U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independente FSJ U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches
Athletico PR U20 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independente FSJ U20 attack 1.17 + Athletico PR U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10
Athletico PR U20 attack 2.17 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Athletico PR U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Athletico PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Independente FSJ U20 host Athletico PR U20 on Friday, 17 May 2024 at 18:45. The match is part of the Paranaense U20 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Independente FSJ U20 vs Athletico PR U20
Athletico PR U20 beat Independente FSJ U20 3-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 17, 2024.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná.