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Independência vs Humaitá — Serie D 2026

Independência
Independência
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Humaitá
Humaitá
Caique Gomes 45'
Biel 42'
Pitel 25'
4/12/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Independência66%
×Draw19%
Humaitá15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independência
2.32
Humaitá
1.01

Independência creates 130% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Independência
1.43
Humaitá
0.73

allows per match

Independência
1.29
Humaitá
3.21

finishing

Independência+0.00on par
Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independência ↓

Humaitá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Independência or draw
85%
Independência or Humaitá
81%
Draw or Humaitá
34%

Winning margin

Independência wins by 2+
43%
Humaitá wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independência 1+ goals
90%
Independência 2+ goals
67%
Independência 3+ goals
40%
Humaitá 1+ goals
64%
Humaitá 2+ goals
27%
Humaitá 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independência (draw refunded)
81%
Humaitá (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independência at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Humaitá away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independência attack 1.43 + Humaitá defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.32

Humaitá attack 0.73 + Independência defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Independência scores more
66%
level
19%
Humaitá scores more
15%

Independência at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Independência will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Pitel
42'
Biel
45'
Caique Gomes
Independência
Humaitá
Ivan Mazzuia
Manager: Ivan Mazzuia
Erismeu
Manager: Erismeu

Serie D: Independência 3–0 Humaitá

Independência beat Humaitá 3-0 in Serie D on April 12, 2026.

Goals: Pitel (25'), Biel (42'), Caique Gomes (45').