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Independência vs Galvez — League #520 2026

Independência
Independência
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Galvez
Galvez
Bare 83'
Luquinhas 76'
Diego Pereira 20'
3/6/2026League #520League #520 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independência18%
×Draw20%
Galvez63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independência
1.10
Galvez
2.24

Galvez creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 31 away

creates per match

Independência
1.20
Galvez
1.87

allows per match

Independência
2.60
Galvez
1.00

finishing

Independência+0.00on par
Galvez+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independência ↓

Galvez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Independência or draw
37%
Independência or Galvez
80%
Draw or Galvez
82%

Winning margin

Independência wins by 2+
6%
Galvez wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Independência 1+ goals
67%
Independência 2+ goals
30%
Independência 3+ goals
10%
Galvez 1+ goals
89%
Galvez 2+ goals
65%
Galvez 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Independência (draw refunded)
22%
Galvez (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independência at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Galvez away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independência attack 1.20 + Galvez defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Galvez attack 1.87 + Independência defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independência scores more
18%
level
20%
Galvez scores more
63%

Galvez at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Diego Pereira
76'
Luquinhas
83'
Bare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independência vs Galvez

Galvez beat Independência 2-1 in League #520 on March 6, 2026.

Goals: Diego Pereira (20'), Luquinhas (76'), Bare (83').