Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 CA Estudiantes

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CA Estudiantes

A. Osella 16'

4/16/2025

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Provincial Juan Gilberto Funes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia55%

×Draw29%

CA Estudiantes16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchCA Estudiantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.56

Independ. Rivadavia

1.31

CA Estudiantes

0.56

Independ. Rivadavia creates 134% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.38

creates per match

0.75

0.38

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.38

CA Estudiantes

0.75

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

0.38

CA Estudiantes

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

CA Estudiantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

84%

Independ. Rivadavia or CA Estudiantes

71%

Draw or CA Estudiantes

45%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

27%

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

73%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

38%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

14%

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

43%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

11%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

78%

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.38 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

CA Estudiantes attack 0.75 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

55%

level

29%

CA Estudiantes scores more

16%

Independ. Rivadavia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Osella

Independ.

CA

1

2

6

3

11

7

10

5

4

9

8

23

2

42

13

⚽

31

5

25

22

34

20

26

Manager: Alfredo Jesús Berti

Independ. Rivadavia substitutes

24Ortega43Sartori21Cardillo40Villalba4Peinipil1Centurión19Schwartz11Tonetto29Abecasis27Souto44Amato8Sequeira

Manager: A. Montenegro

CA Estudiantes substitutes

13Borges20Ramírez19Berterame18Pereyra16Vargas14Silva17Benítez12Vila15Monzón

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs CA Estudiantes

Independ. Rivadavia beat CA Estudiantes 1-0 in Copa Argentina on April 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Osella (16').

The match was played at Estadio Provincial Juan Gilberto Funes in La Punta, Provincia de San Luis.

Independ. Rivadavia vs CA Estudiantes — Copa Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs CA Estudiantes