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Ind. Juniors vs Orense SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Orense SC
Orense SC
9/15/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 27Estadio Municipal La Cocha (Latacunga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ind. Juniors45%
×Draw27%
Orense SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.38
Orense SC
1.02

Ind. Juniors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Orense SC
1.19

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Orense SC
1.31

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
72%
Ind. Juniors or Orense SC
73%
Draw or Orense SC
55%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
21%
Orense SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
40%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
16%
Orense SC 1+ goals
64%
Orense SC 2+ goals
27%
Orense SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
62%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Orense SC attack 1.19 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
45%
level
27%
Orense SC scores more
28%

Ind. Juniors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Ind. Juniors 1–3 Orense SC

Orense SC beat Ind. Juniors 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Cocha (Latacunga).