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Ind. Juniors vs Mushuc Runa SC — Copa Ecuador 2022

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SCadvanced
8/28/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ind. Juniors51%
×Draw33%
Mushuc Runa SC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.11
Mushuc Runa SC
0.50

Ind. Juniors creates 122% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.00
Mushuc Runa SC
0.67

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.33
Mushuc Runa SC
1.22

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
83%
Ind. Juniors or Mushuc Runa SC
67%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
49%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
22%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
67%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
30%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
10%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
39%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
9%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
75%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.67 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
51%
level
33%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
17%

Ind. Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: Ind. Juniors 0–1 Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat Ind. Juniors 1-0 in Copa Ecuador on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.