Ind. Juniors 2–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Ind. Juniors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Macara

6/30/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ind. Juniors44%

×Draw28%

Macara29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ind. JuniorsExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.03

Ind. Juniors

1.33

Macara

1.03

Ind. Juniors creates 29% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.22

0.85

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ind. Juniors

1.44

Macara

1.22

allows per match

Ind. Juniors

0.85

Macara

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw

71%

Ind. Juniors or Macara

72%

Draw or Macara

56%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+

20%

Macara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals

74%

Ind. Juniors 2+ goals

38%

Ind. Juniors 3+ goals

15%

Macara 1+ goals

64%

Macara 2+ goals

28%

Macara 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)

60%

Macara (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Macara away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Macara defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Macara attack 1.22 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more

44%

level

28%

Macara scores more

29%

Ind. Juniors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff