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Ind. Juniors vs Libertad — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
7/21/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ind. Juniors44%
×Draw28%
Libertad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.30
Libertad
0.96

Ind. Juniors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Libertad
1.06

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Libertad
1.17

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
72%
Ind. Juniors or Libertad
72%
Draw or Libertad
56%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
20%
Libertad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
73%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
37%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
14%
Libertad 1+ goals
62%
Libertad 2+ goals
25%
Libertad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
62%
Libertad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Libertad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Libertad defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Libertad attack 1.06 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
44%
level
28%
Libertad scores more
28%

Ind. Juniors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ind. Juniors vs Libertad

Ind. Juniors and Libertad drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.