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Ind. Juniors vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
8/17/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Arena CHUBB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ind. Juniors41%
×Draw30%
Guayaquil City FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.14
Guayaquil City FC
0.91

Ind. Juniors creates 25% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Guayaquil City FC
0.97

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Guayaquil City FC
0.83

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
71%
Ind. Juniors or Guayaquil City FC
70%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
59%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
17%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
68%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
32%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
11%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
60%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
23%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
59%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.97 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
41%
level
30%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
29%

Ind. Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Ind. Juniors 2–3 Guayaquil City FC

Guayaquil City FC beat Ind. Juniors 3-2 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arena CHUBB in Quito.