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Guayaquil City FC vs Ind. Juniors — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
6/12/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 13Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Guayaquil City FC55%
×Draw26%
Ind. Juniors19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.52
Ind. Juniors
0.79

Guayaquil City FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.89
Ind. Juniors
1.01

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.57
Ind. Juniors
1.15

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Ind. Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
81%
Guayaquil City FC or Ind. Juniors
74%
Draw or Ind. Juniors
45%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
28%
Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
78%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
45%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
20%
Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
55%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
19%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
74%
Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Ind. Juniors away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.15 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.89 + Ind. Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ind. Juniors attack 1.01 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
55%
level
26%
Ind. Juniors scores more
19%

Guayaquil City FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Ind. Juniors

Guayaquil City FC beat Ind. Juniors 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.