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Ind. Juniors vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
Y. Ochoa 75'
B. Garcia 5'
B. Mina 53'
10/16/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Ind. Juniors50%
×Draw27%
Gualaceo SC22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.40
Gualaceo SC
0.83

Ind. Juniors creates 69% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
78%
Ind. Juniors or Gualaceo SC
73%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
50%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
25%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
41%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
17%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
56%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
20%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
69%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
50%
level
27%
Gualaceo SC scores more
22%

Ind. Juniors at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
B. Garcia
53'
B. Mina
75'
Y. Ochoa
Ind.
Gualaceo
J. Armas
Manager: J. Armas
Cipriano
Manager: Cipriano

Match Recap: Ind. Juniors vs Gualaceo SC

Ind. Juniors beat Gualaceo SC 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 16, 2025.

Goals: B. Garcia (5'), B. Mina (53'), Y. Ochoa (75').