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Ind. Juniors vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
9/21/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 8Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ind. Juniors45%
×Draw29%
Fuerza Amarilla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.23
Fuerza Amarilla
0.86

Ind. Juniors creates 43% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
74%
Ind. Juniors or Fuerza Amarilla
71%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
55%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
20%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
71%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
35%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
13%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
58%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
21%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
63%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
45%
level
29%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
26%

Ind. Juniors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ind. Juniors vs Fuerza Amarilla

Ind. Juniors beat Fuerza Amarilla 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.