Ind. Juniors 1–1 Delfin SC: Result & Stats

Ind. Juniors

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Delfin SC

6/4/2022

Copa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ind. Juniors53%

×Draw26%

Delfin SC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ind. JuniorsExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.83

Ind. Juniors

1.50

Delfin SC

0.83

Ind. Juniors creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ind. Juniors

1.00

Delfin SC

1.33

allows per match

Ind. Juniors

0.33

Delfin SC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Delfin SC →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw

79%

Ind. Juniors or Delfin SC

74%

Draw or Delfin SC

47%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+

27%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals

78%

Ind. Juniors 2+ goals

44%

Ind. Juniors 3+ goals

19%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

56%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

20%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)

72%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.00 + Delfin SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Delfin SC attack 1.33 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more

53%

level

26%

Delfin SC scores more

21%

Ind. Juniors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff