Ind. Juniors 2–0 Chacaritas: Result & Stats

Ind. Juniors

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chacaritas

G. Vera 35'

M. Cagua 34'

7/16/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 20Estadio Arena CHUBB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ind. Juniors66%

×Draw22%

Chacaritas12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ind. JuniorsExpected goals in this matchChacaritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.63

Ind. Juniors

1.83

Chacaritas

0.63

Ind. Juniors creates 190% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

0.53

0.72

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Ind. Juniors

1.59

Chacaritas

0.53

allows per match

Ind. Juniors

0.72

Chacaritas

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Chacaritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw

88%

Ind. Juniors or Chacaritas

78%

Draw or Chacaritas

34%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+

40%

Chacaritas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals

84%

Ind. Juniors 2+ goals

54%

Ind. Juniors 3+ goals

28%

Chacaritas 1+ goals

47%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

13%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)

84%

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.72 · 46 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.59 + Chacaritas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Chacaritas attack 0.53 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more

66%

level

22%

Chacaritas scores more

12%

Ind. Juniors at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

M. Cagua

35'

G. Vera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff